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November 24, 2020 – Calgary, AB – Canada Energy Regulator
A new energy outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) finds that Canada’s fossil fuel consumption declines over the next 30 years but without an accelerated energy transition, fossil fuels will still make up more than 60 per cent of Canada’s fuel mix in 2050.
Canada’s Energy Future 2020: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 explores how new technologies and climate policy will impact Canadian energy consumption and production trends over the next 30 years. The outlook considers two scenarios with different rates of technological and government policy change: the Evolving Energy System Scenario and the Reference Energy System Scenario.
Under the Evolving Scenario, Canada’s domestic fossil fuel consumption has already peaked and will be 35 per cent lower by 2050. At the same time, renewables and nuclear become a larger share of Canada’s energy mix with electricity playing a greater role in satisfying end use energy needs. Electricity will become increasingly competitive with fossil fuels in many parts of the energy system, including for passenger vehicles.
Moderate growth in crude oil and natural gas production continues until it peaks around 2040. Canada’s major crude oil pipeline projects currently under construction will be able to accommodate expected future production growth over the next two decades.
Achieving net-zero greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in Canada within the next 30 years will require stronger policies and greater adoption of low-carbon technologies. Canadian and international efforts to reduce GHG emissions will be a critical factor in how energy systems evolve in the long term.
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to significantly impact Canada’s energy system. Canada’s economic recovery is a significant unknown facing the energy sector for the near-term, and one of many uncertainties for the long term.
The CER produces neutral and fact-based energy analysis to inform the energy conversation in Canada. Together with Ingenium, the CER has developed educational activities for students and educators to explore Canada’s energy ecosystem over the long term based on Canada’s projected energy demand.
This publicly available report looks at long-term Canadian energy supply and demand outlook covering energy commodities across all provinces and territories. The CER will continue to publish informative products that are beneficial to a diverse audience, and reflect Canada’s diversity of relevant energy issues in an engaging and transparent way.
Results from the Evolving Energy System Scenario
Results from the Reference Energy System Scenario
The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) works to keep energy moving safely across the country. We review energy development projects and share energy information, all while enforcing some of the strictest safety and environmental standards in the world. To find out how the CER is working for you visit us online or connect on social media
Canada Energy Regulator
Email: [email protected]
Telephone (toll free): 1-800-899-1265
Facsimile (toll free): 1-877-288-8803