Learning from past successes and failures can mitigate risks in governments’ $20 billion Indigenous loan guarantees in mega projects, better ensuring success

Press Release

Nov. 06, 2025

VANCOUVER—To mitigate the risks involved in the $20 billion governments have earmarked for Indigenous loan guarantees to facilitate participation in infrastructure projects, lessons should be learned from past successes and failures, finds a new study published by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“Loan guarantees involve real risks, and so it only makes sense to review the history of past successes and failures to better understand practical guidelines for government’s role in these larger infrastructure projects,” said Tom Flanagan, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and author of Risk and Reward: Indigenous Loan

Guarantees for Resource Megaprojects.

The study documents the success—and failures—of loan guarantees for Indigenous participation in a variety of projects in recent years, and lays out a series of policy guidelines that could mitigate risks associated with loan guarantees, particularly those for larger infrastructure projects, including:

o Requiring First Nations to invest some of their own wealth, such as settlement trusts.
p Coordinating between federal and provincial programs.
q Using independent review of proposals to minimize political influence. o Monitoring the indebtedness of First Nations.

o Using loan guarantees for new projects rather than for the takeover of existing projects.

“If Canada is truly committed to building a new generation of resource megaprojects, and if First Nations are to play an important role in the ownership of this infrastructure, then policymakers need to take steps to mitigate the risks inherent with government loan guarantees,” Flanagan said.

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MEDIA CONTACT:

Tom Flanagan, Senior Fellow
Fraser Institute

To arrange media interviews or for more information, please contact:
Bryn Weese, 604-688-0221 ext. 589, bryn.weese@fraserinstitute.org

The Fraser Institute is an independent Canadian public policy research and educational organization with offices in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Halifax and Montreal and ties to a global network of think-tanks in 87 countries. Its mission is to improve the quality of life for Canadians, their families and future generations by studying, measuring and broadly communicating the effects of government policies, entrepreneurship and choice on their well-being. To protect the Institute’s independence, it does not accept grants from governments or contracts for research. Visit www.fraserinstitute.org

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